What to Expect From the Housing Market in 2020

U.S.News & World Report | April 2, 2020 Devon Thorsby

The coronavirus pandemic has thrown a wrench into all facets of life, including paying rent or the mortgage for some, and for those in a better financial position, buying a home, selling one or moving to a new rental.

Stay-at-home orders and calls for social distancing have ruled out in-person home tours, and closed courts mean your local clerk's office can't process new property deeds.

While many people are choosing to delay a home purchase or sale and stay in place until the coronavirus pandemic has subsided -- whenever that may be -- others are still buying, selling and signing new leases. But as economic uncertainty and personal financial concerns grow, experts see some changes ahead in the housing market even after the threat of COVID-19 has peaked that will affect buying, selling, renting and new construction.

Here are some changes experts see on the horizon for the rest of 2020.

Buying

At the start of 2020, many economists expected homebuying to remain healthy throughout the year, bolstered by fairly low mortgage rates -- below 4% -- though held back slightly over concerns of a future recession to occur in 2021 or later.

When the coronavirus first caused stock markets to drop dramatically and the spread of COVID-19 led to widespread school and business closings and calls for people to remain in their homes, mortgage rates initially dropped in lenders' efforts to offset the scare.

On March 4, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage interest rate hit a historically low 3.29%, which led to a flood of would-be buyers and homeowners rushing to apply for a mortgage or refinance. Overwhelmed by interest, lenders raised rates slightly to 3.65% on March 19, but they have since fallen again to 3.33% as of April 2, according to Freddie Mac.

Even with the temporary increase, mortgage rates are now more than 0.5% below the rate at the same point in 2019, and they are well below rates from a historical perspective.

Unfortunately, low interest rates haven't been able to sustain homebuyer activity. While it's unclear whether this is primarily due to orders to remain at home or concerns about financial stability and employment -- it's likely a mixture of both -- homebuyer activity has dropped dramatically. In a survey of more than 3,000 Realtors conducted March 16-17 by the National Association of Realtors, 48% reported a decrease in homebuyer interest due to the coronavirus outbreak.

"We've seen the impact of activity from all of this, so of course it's not business as usual ... but by no means has it stopped entirely," says Skylar Olsen, director of economic research for real estate information company Zillow.

Experts aren't able to analyze many historic examples to show us how the market will react in the course of the pandemic and over the long term; the housing market is very different from what it was more than 100 years ago during the Spanish flu pandemic. Olsen notes the SARS epidemic that occurred in China starting in 2002 would serve as the best example.

During the SARS outbreak, Olsen explains, there was a marked drop in real estate transaction activity in affected parts of China like we're seeing today in the U.S. Here, buyer activity fell first and fastest where the virus initially appeared and where isolation measures were first instituted -- in Seattle, then San Francisco and much of the rest of California.

One hopeful takeaway from the SARS epidemic is that home prices, and the housing market in general, weren't impacted significantly in the long run. Once the epidemic subsided, homebuyer and seller interest returned fairly quickly, Olsen says.

"What's happening to us right now is not being driven by a market failure," Olsen adds.

The question of the scale of impact that the housing market and the economy will see hinges on how prolonged the spread of COVID-19 will be. "If it lasts too long, will people's affordability be completely eroded?" Olsen asks. If so, the recession we reasonably expect now due to the temporary decline in productivity and activity will become what Olsen refers to as a "real recession," where returning to previous levels of productivity and activity will be much harder.

Selling

As homebuyer activity has dropped significantly, many sellers have decided to delay putting their homes on the market, both to continue social distancing and eliminate the need to move in the middle of a pandemic.

However, not everyone has the luxury of waiting. Fortunately, all is not lost. Daniel de la Vega, president of ONE Sotheby's International Realty in Coral Gables, Florida, says that while activity has decreased, agents are still showing homes -- by video tour -- and homes are still going under contract.

Zillow reports that the last week of March, compared with the average from February, saw a 408% increase in users making 3D videos for homes on the market that aim to immerse prospective buyers and recreate the feeling of touring a home in person. Such videos have actually been a nationwide feature on Zillow's website since 2019, but are no longer a "niche product," Olsen says. "It's what you need if you want to keep getting your home through (the sale) process," Olsen says.

Right now, the challenge is to make sure homes that are on the market don't linger. Real estate listing agents are highly focused on "making sure they price these home appropriately so they don't sit on the market too long," de la Vega says.

The outlook for home sellers after the pandemic, like with buyers, depends on how long quarantines and the spread of the virus last. As more homes that would have been on the market at the start of spring remain unlisted, we can expect to see more go on the market shortly after the pandemic ends.

The more financially strained homeowners are, the more houses you're likely to see for sale and the fewer buyers there will be, which is typical of a market at the beginning of a recession. Buyers who aren't affected by layoffs and have enough savings to afford a down payment will benefit.

"I expect prices to go down a bit after this, and I expect people to be able to buy maybe their dream home that they wouldn't be able to buy before this," de la Vega says.

Sellers who are interested in a quick real estate deal through an iBuyer, like Opendoor or Zillow Offers, will have to wait. Both Opendoor and Zillow Offers, as well as similar firms, have paused transactions. This reduces the chances that iBuyer employees are exposed to COVID-19, and it also reduces the chances of mass attempts to liquidate homes for cash in a financial panic.

While de la Vega says he is preparing his agents to work through a worst-case scenario housing crisis, he remains optimistic that the housing market won't suffer too long. "I don't think that prices are going to go down as drastically as people think," he says.

Renting

Renters are expected to be especially hard hit since they account for much of the workforce affected by closed businesses, reduced hours and layoffs.

Many first-time homebuyers who are holding off on a home purchase remain renters for now. This means rents are likely to rise in the near future due to continued demand. However, the financial uncertainty caused by COVID-19 is leading to both government and public pressure for landlords to give tenants suffering illness or job loss a break.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has placed a moratorium on evictions for all rental properties insured by the Federal Housing Agency through mid-May. Governors and mayors throughout the U.S. are following suit and halting evictions as well, and some sheriff's departments are announcing that they will stop carrying out lockouts for the time being.

Even where evictions haven't been officially halted, many states have closed courthouses as a precautionary measure to prevent further spread of the coronavirus, effectively stopping eviction proceedings.

If unemployment remains high in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, landlords can expect further regulation to help renters get back on their feet and avoid eviction.

Luxury apartment building projects may be put on hold if affordability becomes an issue, says Barry LePatner, a construction attorney and advisor, and author of "Broken Buildings, Busted Budgets: How to Fix America's Trillion-Dollar Construction Industry." This is because both developers and their lenders will question whether people will be able to afford to pay sky-high rents for luxury amenities.

For now, some renters appear willing to find a new rental as planned, regardless of the pandemic. In a survey of about 7,000 renters on rental listing and information site RentCafe.com between March 25-27, 52% said they still plan to move as soon as they find an apartment, and just 10% have chosen to put their search on hold.

While affording rent may become a long-term issue if unemployment remains high, landlords of mid- and low-price apartments can expect healthy demand, as people who would otherwise break into homeownership remain renters.

New Construction and Development

Since the Great Recession, residential construction has struggled to meet demand, contributing to climbing prices for existing homes throughout the U.S. Slowly, new construction has been ramping up: In 2019, there were roughly 1,370,300 new building permits for privately owned housing -- the highest number since 2007, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Of course, the coronavirus pandemic changes the outlook for residential construction entirely. In particular, many states and cities have taken widely varied stances on whether residential construction is considered an essential service that will continue throughout the pandemic. California and Ohio are two states where residential construction continues, while in New York and the city of Boston, construction has stopped or is limited to roads, bridges, health care facilities and other projects considered part of emergency needs.

Where construction continues, workers are concerned for their safety, as many on-site tasks require workers to operate close together.

Inconsistent policies from state to state could lead to vastly different outcomes in terms of available new housing when the pandemic subsides. "The world will be a different place insofar as the real estate, development and construction industries are concerned,"LePatner says.

LePatner says lenders are already being more cautious about the construction and development projects they consider for loans; they don't want to lend to a project that will struggle to attract tenants or buyers in this changing economy.

A key concern in the industry is the fact that construction laborers will have to find new work -- 91% of construction workers in the country work for companies with 20 people or less, LePatner says, and those local small businesses are most at risk. "(Construction is) a real mom-and-pop shop industry," LePatner says.

LePatner points to what occurred during the Great Recession, when many construction workers left the industry altogether for lack of available work, and says we can expect a construction labor shortage if prolonged isolation and economic concerns stop construction on a large scale for long enough to make workers seek jobs elsewhere.

Webinar Presentation by Barry B. LePatner

On April 6, 2020 Barry B. LePatner was invited to speak as part of a webinar addressing how the COVID-19 pandemic would impact the real estate, design and construction industry once the current moratorium on projects is lifted. Mr. LePatner provided a cogent perspective on the likely problems that would face the industry and set out five prescriptives for industry members to follow to minimize the uncertain times ahead.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a crisis unlike any the real estate, design and construction communities have ever experienced. I would like to focus my discussion today first, on identifying the unique problems that owners, architects, engineers and contractors will face once construction resumes, and secondly, on how each of you can prepare to take advantage of the opportunities that will arise when the crisis abates.

Let’s take a look at what the industries will look like once the COVID-19 epidemic has ended. As many of you know, real estate and construction are a significant part of our national and local economy. Governmental decisions to require shelter-at-home stays for most of the country will clearly throw us into a recession and increase our national deficit by trillions of dollars.

A new report from the American Institute of Architects indicates that the pandemic will significantly reduce demand for architectural services for at least much of 2020. Similarly, the Association of General Contractors reports that 45% of contractors have already seen project delays or disruptions and this number will increase substantially as most construction comes to a halt except for projects the government deems essential. Hundreds of thousands of workers in both fields will be out of work for many months until the rebound in construction begins.

Owners planning new projects can expect to see lenders take a more cautious stance on funding as new criteria for vetting projects will reflect changing market conditions. Looking at retail, as one example, Coresight Research reports that the coronavirus outbreak will trigger an unprecedented number of retail closures. Retailers are shuttering stores temporarily, but many may never re-open. More than 15,000 store closures could occur in the U.S. in 2020, beating last year’s record of 9,300.

The halt in construction will severely impact the nation’s supply chain of products and materials, much of which come from overseas. Tens of thousands of these suppliers, vendors and manufacturers – foreign and domestic – lacking sufficient capital, will be out of business by the time the moratorium ends.

How can owners whose projects are on hold and architects, engineers and contractors, who are comprised of mostly small to medium-sized firms, plan for a positive recovery from such a traumatic blow to their businesses? Let me identify five important steps that smart firms in the industry must take to address the difficult times ahead:

1. Owners who have seen projects stall should be reaching out to their architects, engineers and construction team to consider modifications to the design shown in their current plans. By using the moratorium in a positive way, continuation of the project will not be blindsided by adverse post-COVID market conditions.
2. This is an excellent time for owners to discuss with their contractors how their projects will recommence once the moratorium on construction ends. The goal of every owner and contractor should be to negotiate during the suspension, the actual remobilization and other costs contractors will be seeking when a notice to proceed is sent by the owner. As these costs will increase the project budget owners should be discussing with their lenders extensions on their construction loans and advising them that remobilization costs will increase the project budget as well as extend the time for completion.
3. Taking a long term perspective, it is important to remember that the US is presently in the midst of massive growth in population. According to the US Census Bureau, we will be adding another 60 million residents by 2050. This new growth will spur a boom in construction of over $25 trillion dollars within the next 20 years as tens of millions of people move out of our cities into fast growing parts of the nation. This, in turn, will require new housing, schools, roads, bridges and needed retail. Business savvy firms will stay ahead of their competitors by marketing their services in these burgeoning areas of the nation.
4. Because the current stoppage of work is so widespread, many in the design and construction industry should be reassessing their current client lists and refocusing on the many new areas of design that will arise out of the crisis. In the next few years we will see new energy initiatives and more efficient HVAC systems that will lower operating costs for most facilities.
5. Finally, owners will be demanding fixed price contracts with tighter budgets and project schedules. They will be looking to retain design and construction firms that are proficient in the use of Building Information Modeling (or BIM) to prepare complete and coordinated designs that will enable contractors to negotiate fixed price contracts. Increasingly, those firms that fully adopt such technologies will bring greater efficiency to the construction process and greater ability to eliminate customary and unwarranted cost overruns of 20-40%.

AEC firms will need to develop carefully crafted business plans to survive the perils ahead. Four primary areas will help guide the industry through these difficult times: (1) It is imperative that each firm retains its existing client relationships; (2) they must research and identify the new markets for business opportunity where existing markets may not have recovered once the epidemic passes; (3) each must identify specific goals for revenue, expense and profit that are directly tied to realistic market conditions; and (4) each firm must increase its use of technology to achieve productivity and profitability objectives. Those who lack the skill to develop such a detailed plan will need to seek out advisors who can successfully guide them along this path.

These are turbulent times for our nation. In truth, things will get worse before they get better. But I am convinced that our nation will see a strong rebound from the recession ahead. With smart planning and good judgement we will, in time, see our nation and our industry rebound strongly in the years ahead.

Steps Design Professionals Must Take with COVID-19 | Commercial Construction and Renovation

On April 7, 2020 Barry LePatner’s article, “Steps Design Professionals Must Take with COVID-19” appeared in Commercial Construction & Renovation. Barry has been providing the real estate, design and construction world with his regular updates on the best practices needed to manage their operations during and after the pendency of the current pandemic sweeping our nation.

With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, the design profession has never been confronted by a crisis as demanding as this since World War II. To varying degrees, all design firm principals are likely experiencing fears and uncertainty from a human and business perspective, for themselves, their families, and their colleagues.

And while those feelings are real, understandable and ever-present, the question that remains to be addressed is: What steps should I take to best navigate my firm in the face of this uncertainty?

Most essential in these unprecedented times will be calm, rational decision-making in regard to short- and long-term plans built on flexibility and sound business judgment.

Don’t Go it Alone

Yet before you even begin, no one person in an any design organization should be making decisions about the future of your firm without consulting other principals and the entire staff. Information must be secured from a variety of sources including a firm’s bankers, accountants, and attorneys.

Assessment and Communication

To help identify the key issues to be addressed and acted upon here are four topics for your firm to focus on related to its current and immediate future once an “all clear” is announced and business begins some semblance of a return to the “new normal”:

• It is imperative that you communicate with your staff to identify any personal or financial problems they may be experiencing, and offer to provide whatever advice or individual assistance they may need, or direction they may require involving outside parties;

• Equally important is the need to reach out to all clients to assess the ongoing nature of their projects your firm is working on with them and to prepare individual directives as to their current project imperatives;

• While new business outreach in these difficult times will not proceed as usual, keep in touch with prospective clients, partners, vendors, and other sources of possible business for when the crisis has departed;

• Accept the possibility that one or more of your ongoing projects may not immediately start back up after the pandemic has abated. Issues in regard to staffing and cash flow will be directly tied to these projects.

Economic Realities

In addition to the issues noted above, some caveats about the uncertainties raised by the unique nature of this crisis include:

• Lease issues: will your landlord agree to defer rent payments for a period of time, saving you needed cash for other business needs? Check with your landlord and real estate broker or lawyer.

• Staff size: Depending on the number of projects that have been impacted by the crisis, identify your staff needs and do not bring back staff to sit idle waiting for projects that are on indefinite hold to come back online. Your bottom line and cash flow will be a direct consequence of your dedication to keeping staff on payroll that can support your active projects to move forward.

• Secure your finances: Speak with your bankers and secure a line of credit to enable your firm to weather the uncertainties of the balance of 2020 and balance your cash flow needs to match your funding and collections.

• Technology: this is the best time to streamline operations and create greater efficiencies in how you prepare critical construction documents. BIM is the present and the future of the industry. Committing more of your team to excel in producing virtual buildings using this technology will bring your firm into a future desired by public and private owners.

• Marketing: the most successful firms going forward will devote funds to aggressive marketing campaigns that emphasize lean and efficient teams to help owners produce projects on time and on budget. There will be less emphasis on owners seeking costly overdesigned projects in the near term.

The total impact of the Covid-19 crisis will not become apparent until some time has passed. But following the prescriptive laid out above will help ensure that your firm comes out of these difficult times on a more solid financial and profit-oriented basis. Taking these steps will enable you and your fellow principals to lay the groundwork for longer-term growth when the market stabilizes, ultimately leading to the next construction boom.

Facing Down Fear in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Barely two months ago I sent out to friends and colleagues my annual blog designating the phrase, “new normal” as the “Phrase of the Year”. I noted that we were being called upon to address problems such as the growing income inequality in our nation; that our political and economic policy will need to deal with 98 million aging baby boomers; that widespread unemployment will arise as robots continue to threaten the jobs of millions over the next few decades; and, that water may run out for those living in the South and Midwest.

While I might have been on target with selection of the phrase “new normal” I was cosmically distanced from anticipating how far beyond those events of the past years we would travel by the end of the first quarter 2020. Who could have predicted that a pandemic of the proportions of that with which we are dealing could have reached our shores within months and threaten millions of lives and the virtual economy of the United States?

We have all seen the dire predictions of how devastating this virus can become. “We’re looking at something that’s catastrophic on a level that we have not seen for an infectious disease since 1918”, said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. “And it’s requiring sacrifices we haven’t seen since World War II. There are going to be enormous disruptions. There’s no easy way out.” The 1918 Spanish influenza killed 675,000 in the U.S. including 30,000 New Yorkers.

Much credit was given to the then City Health Commissioner, Royal S. Copeland, who mobilized every public health measure possible along with a vast network of social workers, labor unions, medical researchers, feminists, progressive activists and a massive nursing crew led by Lillian Wald, who went on to become the founder of today’s Visiting Nurse Service. How these citizens rallied to the cause was the compelling story to arise from such a disastrous threat to the city and the nation.

Today, we face an equally challenging situation. Our nation confronts not only a medical threat that could kill millions if not aggressively addressed by strict quarantines but one that will, most certainly, throw two million or more people out of work for months if not a year or more. Businesses are already threatened with bankruptcy, from the closed factories that power our worldwide manufacturing capabilities to the hundreds of thousands of small businesses in cities and towns across the country.

In speaking with dozens of business colleagues, clients and friends this past week I discerned two common themes that wove through our conversations: (1) a state of sheer uncertainty about the impact that “social distancing” and what work at home requirements will mean for our city and country; and (2) the sheer terror at how seemingly unprepared, our society and business community has been for such an occurrence.

Our national leaders have shown a vague sense of how our nation was prepared to cope with a silent killer that seemed to come out of nowhere and somehow reached the farthest and most inaccessible parts of our country and our world (“How could someone like Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, catch the virus in Australia, for God’s sake” said one friend. “What will all this mean to our thriving real estate market once it is all finished?” asked a successful real estate broker.)

I found that I could not sugarcoat a situation that clearly, to my mind, will entail vast economic harm to small businesses lacking capital or to the largely “mom and pop” supply chain of contractors, suppliers, manufacturers and vendors that make up our $1.5 trillion a year construction industry. I suggested that this complex of events may well lead to a “new normal” realm of how we rebuild our businesses, restore faith in our government and sensitize us to the importance of protecting our fragile ecosystem.

I mentioned to several friends and colleagues that our society was not intended to be totally devastated by a virus of this proportion. In “A Guide to the End of the World” (Oxford University Press) by Bill McGuire, we are told that “as long as we are all confined to a single solar system, the long-term survival of our race is always going to be tenuous.” He points out the real threats posed to our planet by climate change, geological threats such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes or collisions from comets and asteroids that will put us in serious jeopardy over the next one hundred years. But, he concludes after a detailed recitation of these serious threats that

“Our species and those that follow may be knocked back time and time again in the short term, but provided we learn to nurture our environment rather than exploit it…perhaps we have the time to do and be almost anything. Maybe now is the right time to start.”

We are too resilient a nation to be set back irreversibly by biological disease that can be addressed if we take the necessary steps to minimize its effects. I have been led to believe that this event is meant to make us much more aware of how important it is to work together to protect our fragile environment and the institutions we have painstakingly built to be there for us during times of national uncertainty.

The past few days I reminded my children and friends that:

• Our nation will stand and return stronger. Of that I am certain.

• Our fundamental institutions are resilient enough to form a protective link that will enable us to muster the resources to halt the disease before long. Of that I am certain.

• Our fellow citizens will rise to whatever challenges they are called upon in these difficult times. Of that I am certain.

• When this is over we will still have standing the framework for continuing to rebuild our economy and continue to build a better world for our children and grandchildren. Of that I am certain.

I could not help but recall the words of President John F. Kennedy, a veteran of World War II and a hero who saved the lives of his naval compatriots aboard PT 109 who, when asked to define "courage" stated that it was "grace under pressure". I would call on each of us to heed those words in these times. Recognizing that the current time may find us under increasing pressure – and assuredly matters will get worse before they get better – we need to exhibit our strength of character to those around us and, especially those less fortunate than ourselves.

Though sheltered in our home, Marla and I have committed ourselves to making dozens of calls each day to family and friends (Facetiming them if they have the technology) to provide words of encouragement and support and love when such support may be most needed. We want our time at home to be constructively invested in doing meaningful acts that will be the best spent time while sequestered.

The uncertainty of where we are heading is frightening and will likely pervade the thoughts of many in the months ahead. But it has become more important than ever to recognize and accept that there is little we can do about these events other than to obey the dictates of the professionals and extend ourselves to those around us albeit through social media and phone calls.

In my January blog announcing the phrase of the year, I concluded with these words, which sound more prescient today than two months ago:

“So, here is my advice to each of my friends and colleagues around the country. Let’s all acknowledge that there is much over which we have no control. Worrying about what we cannot control is a decidedly frustrating and anxiety-producing activity. The nature of our lives and, in fact, the future of our nation, lies within those actions over which we can exercise some control and, in the final analysis, those issues we deem worthy of taking into our own hands.” 

“Spend 2020 doing constructive thinking and performing worthwhile acts that will deal, in the most positive sense, with the “new normal” that will most decidedly be part of our lives for years to come.” 

Be strong for those who are looking to you for your strength. 

As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments on these words.

Identifying Signs of the Distressed Construction Project

All too often we see headlines about large construction projects in states of virtual distress. Projects — such as the Big Dig or New York City’s Calatrava Transit Hub — that incur multi-billion cost overruns and years-long delays come immediately to mind.

But today’s real estate developers, corporations, or small school districts that plan construction projects are equally at risk of having those projects come to a partial, if not complete halt, jeopardizing completion, and costing owners millions (sometimes tens of millions) of dollars, that may never be recovered.

A prime example was the case of a recent distressed project for an institutional client at the heart of our cultural community where I was called in to address major construction issues. In repurposing the original structure built in the 1960s, the owners’ intent was to expand the internal structural configuration, simplify navigation throughout the complex, and completely revise the complicated electrical, mechanical, and plumbing systems to meet new functions of the organization. All this was to be accomplished within a five-month construction phase to open for a commemorative anniversary.

Yet, there were early warning signs of impending doom:

• Lowest bidders. After interviewing five capable construction managers (CMs), the owner chose the lowest bidder for this $15 million project who, inexplicably, had no prior experience in this building type.

• Last-minute changes. During the one-year pre-construction period, the owners continued to revise elements of the design such that subs did not receive final bid packages until weeks before construction was to start. This precluded full coordination of the trades, leading to massive problems during construction and clashes between mechanical, electrical, and security systems in the walls and ceilings.

• Not securing permissions. The owner’s rep team fumbled securing a critical permit that ate up the first four weeks. This fact alone should have triggered an immediate schedule extension. However, an inexperienced project manager assigned by the CM only requested a change order for additional overtime payment for the trades and kept the original five months schedule as is!

• Fudging schedules. (And budgets.) Despite learning that the steel fabricator had incurred a five-week delay in installing the new internal structure, the CM hid this fact from the owner team, and continued to issue regular monthly schedules showing the project was to be completed as originally planned!

To recover all that lost time, the CM secretly authorized its trades to undertake massive overtime and premium time costs without securing authorization from the owner!

When the project hit the scheduled completion date, the anniversary party of esteemed guests saw an unfinished construction site; the list of incomplete and defective work totaled nearly 75 pages and $3 million.

I provided the Board an overview of the problems they had allowed to get out of hand: For a $15 million budget to get built in five months required that an average of $3 million per month had to be accomplished with time allowed for inspections by the city Department of Buildings. When the first two monthly requisitions showed the subs had completed only $1.7 million of work, the project should have been halted for a “resetting” and the scheduled anniversary party canceled until these problems were resolved.

With all the work seemingly proceeding, no one on the owner’s side blew the whistle on the CM’s project manager. Despite working with the team during the pre-construction phase, he quit five weeks before construction commenced. The owner team had originally acquiesced in the appointment by the CM’s CEO of a novice project manager who later admitted that “he lost control of the project six weeks after it began.”

Progress photographs showed that much of the complex electrical, mechanical, and security systems work had not been done correctly, was sloppily managed, and showed few signs of coordination.

The CM was then given a choice: either agree to be terminated for default and face a lawsuit for over $3 million or agree to complete the balance of work as well as do all corrective work (overseen by my office and the owner team) for the balance of the original contract sum. The CM stayed on the job, assigned two highly experienced project managers, and had the trades do the corrective work through completion.

All distressed projects start out just like successful ones; the difference is that successful projects begin with the right team and processes already in place — that are followed faithfully. The distressed projects do not proceed without signs of trouble — they only need experienced oversight to identify and address it early.

Phrase of the Year

Whew! For those of you who celebrated the end of a tumultuous 2019 and are facing the prospect of finding the energy to address what gives every indication of another raucous year, consider that we have just completed the first two decades of the 21st Century. The cultural, economic and political shifts we have seen over the past twenty years have been nothing short of astounding.

Some would say our nation has always been one of manifest destiny where we are being led to a future based on the amazing experiment our founding fathers set in motion over 250 years ago. Others would point to a host of traumatic events of the past twenty years – years that were both surprising and deserve serious pondering. Think about the cultural and political shifts that flowed from Black Lives Matter, the #Me Too Movement, the growing acceptance of the L.G.B.T.Q. population and the accompanying awakening triggered by these movements. Think about how segments of our government and the powerful business and religious groups more aggressively presented themselves as defenders of the slowly dying fact that our nation has, for far too long, been governed by old, white men who pretended to know what is best for the rest of us.

Think about the all-too numerous catastrophes such as Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and the more recent hurricane that devastated Houston. Consider the raging fires in Australia and the shrinking polar icecap that will raise the water levels of our oceans and inundate a good portion of the east coast within fifty years. https://bit.ly/2TazDLc

All of this is by way of introducing my phrase of the year, the term I have come annually to consider as the thought by which we should view events that will circumscribe the coming year.

After much thought about the changes described above – not to mention the horrific impact of opioid addiction in much of this nation, the epidemic of gun violence and the havoc being heaped upon all segments of the political world by the advent of Trumpism – I have selected “the new normal” as the 2020 phrase of the year.

Some of you will recall that 2019 saw my reference to the “rule of law” as the guiding framework of the past year. It certainly turned out to be prescient in the face of a President and his Attorney General pontificating, despite a still living Constitution, that the executive can defy oversight by the other two branches of government. The rule of law will be challenged again this year and every year that Trump remains in office.

But the real changes in our world as cited above, warrant that we turn our attention to what has happened in our nation and our world in recent years and how we confront these new realities going forward. A little definition of “the new normal” would appear in order. According to the Urban Dictionary, the phrase is widely utilized in reference to the current state of being after some dramatic change has transpired; what replaces the expected, usual, typical state after an event occurs. The new normal encourages one to deal with current situations where the previously abnormal has become commonplace.

The phrase, though used in the early 1900s, became more widely used following the tragic events of 9\11. It referred to the recognition that the trauma of the series of events that toppled the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon, transfigured the ways our nation was forced to realize that worldwide terrorism had come to our shores, despite the fact of a bombing at the base of the World Trade Center which occurred in 1993. To most of us, as a result of 9\11 a new normal creeped into our lives as evidenced by the fact that every building in NYC has a security desk screening all who enter, whereas you don’t see this evident in most cities around the nation.

Today’s “new normal” calls upon us to deal with some of the following: the increasing problem of growing income inequality in our nation; how our political and economic policy will deal with 98 million aging baby boomers; widespread unemployment that will arise as robots continue to threaten the jobs of millions over the next few decades. And, what happens when the water runs out for those living in the South and Midwest?

Our US Supreme Court will shortly be called upon to address this year a spate of hot button topics that could promulgate a host of “new normal” shocks to our conventional wisdom such as: whether Roe v. Wade will be eviscerated, changing every woman’s right to choose to have an abortion; whether Dreamers will be stripped of the protections provided to them by the Obama Administration; or whether civil rights laws apply to members of the L.G.B.T Q. community.

So, here is my advice to each of my friends and colleagues around the country. Let’s all acknowledge that there is much over which we have no control. Worrying about what we cannot control is a decidedly frustrating and anxiety-producing activity. The nature of our lives and, in fact, the future of our nation, lies within those actions over which we can exercise some control and, in the final analysis, those issues we deem worthy of our taking into our own hands.

One of those steps is following through on our sacred rite of voting for candidates who can bring about needed change and doing all in our power to get our friends and families out to vote as well. Let’s commit to ensuring that we send money to candidates who reflect our values and those that have made this country the land of greatest opportunity in the world. Let’s talk about the issues and understand them – from both sides – so that we can make decisions on what works best for our nation, our children and our grandchildren.

If we do all that, then we will have spent 2020 doing constructive thinking and performing worthwhile acts that will deal, in the most positive sense, with the “new normal” that will most decidedly be part of our lives for years to come.

Truth and Honesty: On Trial in Our Nation

I have been reflecting lately on two words, truth and honesty, that pervaded my childhood and resonated throughout most of my adulthood. In many ways, for most of you, as we grew up, these words appeared as synonyms that presented themselves in different guises. Every child was told that George Washington, as a youth, after wrongly chopping down a cherry tree ‘fessed up to the act by exclaiming, “I cannot tell a lie.” Was he telling the truth or just being honest? We likely never considered the difference.

Recent events have led me to ponder the growing importance of these words. The political environment, at home and abroad, has shown these two words have metamorphosed over the past few decades. This past week, we saw Britain's Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party sweep to a landslide victory in a national election notwithstanding he broke a promise to get Britain out of Europe by October 31; lied about Turks invading Britain; lied about building 40 new hospitals; and outright lied in statements to the Queen.

In this country Democrats can rightfully fear that the electorate here, as in Britain, no longer places a value on whether our leaders feel a need to be truthful to us. It is certainly amazing that, as detailed by the media, fraudulent Trump, as of October 9, his 993rd day in office, had made 13,435 false or misleading claims, according to the Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement he has uttered. That’s an average of almost 22 bogus claims a day since our last update 65 days ago.

As we approach the election year of 2020, we face an existential crossroads that will determine whether the concept of truth will remain as it has been framed since the founding of our nation (“We hold these truths to be self-evident“) or if that concept will be fatally undermined by forces that no longer care whether facts really matter. As one historian recently stated, “We’re in a dangerous moment where people come to believe that nobody is giving them the facts and reality, and everybody can make up their own script and their own narrative.”

As a practicing lawyer for the past forty years, I accept my sacred obligation to address issues of truth and honesty to clients, adversaries and the courts. In researching the distinction I came across a quotation (and most of you know how I value quotations) from two writers, Matthew Frederick and Vibeke Norgaard Martin, who in their book, 101 Things I Learned in Law School, offered their version of the difference between truth and honesty in this fashion:

“Lawyers must be honest, but they don’t have to be truthful. Honesty and truthfulness are not the same thing. Being honest means not telling lies. Being truthful means actively making known all the full truth of a matter. Lawyers must be honest, but they do not have to be truthful. A criminal defense lawyer, for example, in zealously defending a client, has no obligation to actively present the truth.”

I am not a criminal lawyer. But I am certain that the distinction these two authors make, however correct in its application, is one reason why the legal profession has fallen into such low regard in our nation. Nevertheless, the entire subject, to use Stephen Colbert’s word of “truthiness,” has become of greater importance with the election of our 45th President, one Donald J. Trump. As a child, I and the entire boomer generation grew up in the years immediately following World War II, where our nation proudly carried the banner of democracy and fought to save the world from tyrants and dictators. We sacrificed our brave soldiers to fight those who cared naught for the concept of democratic rights but only sought the autocratic demands of individuals who cared nothing for “the rule of law.” We were a generation where the promise of a future free of war, of living in a nation ripe with opportunity, meant we would live much better lives than those of our parents and grandparents (many of whom had come to this country as immigrants). Parents were sacred to us; our teachers were held in high esteem and honored for their education; and our civic leaders were beyond reproach. All this, of course, came crashing down in the 1960s which introduced us to assassinations of some of our most heralded leaders, a president (Lyndon Johnson) who led us into a dishonest war in Viet Nam which killed over 50,000 of our young soldiers, his successor (Richard Nixon) who committed outright treason by making a deal with our enemy, before assuming office, to keep the war going a few extra years for political advantage, and a fifty year trend that has led so many to question the integrity and credibility of our nation’s leaders ever after. Honesty is the reputation we earn when, at our best, others see us as trustworthy, i.e., though we may be imperfect, our motives are seen as pure. Truth is the story as we come to view it and use facts to convince others as to what we believe.

“To earn a reputation as one who is honest is not easily acquired. It is one of those virtues that only comes when others have been exposed to us in a variety of situations.”

To earn a reputation as one who is honest is not easily acquired. It is one of those virtues that only comes when others have been exposed to us in a variety of situations. We may say that “she acted honestly” when she returned the purse she found on the street to its owner. But that single act does not a reputation of honesty make. Perhaps the woman only returned the purse after removing the cash found within.

To be known as one who “tells the truth” requires that those in our orbit agree that the argument one makes to support a position that is based on facts. We accept the fact of global warming and the scientific underpinnings supporting this belief while recognizing there are a handful of scientists and others who seriously challenge those same facts and the premise that our environment has not been experiencing the impact from identifiable climate change.

Today, we are confronted by the harsh reality of a sitting President found to have made outright lies over 13,000 times since coming into office just over three years ago.

This culture of dishonesty and lack of shame for an almost daily series of falsehoods makes him a terrible role model for today’s children who no longer have a George Washington, two George Bushes, or Barack Obama after which to pattern their behavior. But Trump is not the only reason why the public so distrusts our leaders and our institutions.

We can also thank the internet, that technological wonder of our digital age, for playing a major role in our questioning of what constitutes a fact we can rely upon. Who can believe there was a time, only thirty years ago, at the dawn of the internet, when the mission statement of Google was to “do no evil"? Yet, our digital media, including Facebook, Google, Amazon et al, blithely spews out features designed to rivet attentions to screens of all sizes while lack of privacy, disinformation, hate speech and abuse of children online have become all too common.

Anyone who has yet to realize the truly insidious nature of our national tech addiction need only turn to two sources. The clinical psychologist, Sherry Turkel, has written “Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in the Digital Age” a well-informed study that attacks our rapturous adoration and submission to the digital world and how it is slowly atrophying human capacities such as empathy, self-reflection, and conversation itself. Her interviews and research shockingly reveal how our youngest generations are actually afraid of face-to-face conversations.

“It is also critical to recognize that the internet has hijacked every detail of our lives.”

Without embracing the benefits of solitude – too many Americans turn to a digital screen for hours each day as their prime social interaction – we are unable to form our own independent fact-based thoughts. And, without such independence of thought we eventually lose our humanity and the ability to separate truth from the lies that will hurt us.

It is also critical to recognize that the internet has hijacked every detail of our lives. Companies and websites track everything we do online. Click here for a series of articles from the New York Times entitled "The Privacy Project" to read about how pervasive these intrusions have become and what you can do to protect yourself and your family.

It is essential to know that there are multiple databases hidden around the world that can identify the products you use, your financial status, how much money you owe on your house and car and what medical concerns you have. It is all there and, most frightening, available to be used by those we don’t know to harm us and our families.

Moreover, we have lost the ability to discern what is truth and what is absolute falsehood on the internet. Millions of seemingly “truthful” news articles were disseminated by Russian agents of Vladimir Putin in the 2016 election and if they only affected a critical 100,000 votes in certain states then they accomplished the impossible feat of having one presidential candidate, who received three million less votes than the other one, slide into the most powerful position in the world.

Whether your politics leans one way or another, as a parent you need to figure out how best to teach your children the values of honesty and truth-telling. Just this week we learned that our nation spent 18 years in a war in Afghanistan only to find out that our generals admitted to lying and hiding evidence from senior government officials that the war was unwinnable. This was exactly what happened fifty years ago with Viet Nam and the ultimate publication of the Pentagon Papers. Have we learned nothing about what it costs to lie over these decades?

Also, this past week, a Monmouth University poll disclosed that 44% of Republicans selected Donald Trump as a better president than George Washington. No kidding! What we are seeing is the origins of fealty to a president whose lies are now the norm, who paid $25 million to settle a class action brought by those who signed up for a phony Trump University education, and last month was ordered by a judge to pay $2 million to charities in recompense for using a debunked Trump Foundation “charity” to pay for seven foot cardboard images of himself.

We deserve better. Yes, we have serious problems with climate change. The nation has yet to address how to improve life for millions of homeless people. We are still a nation rife with unseemly racism. We must assist those in cities and towns addicted to opioids because our pharmaceutical companies paid doctors tens of millions of dollars to overmedicate their patients with painkillers. But we should not be confronting these serious problems while having to deal with those who would carry on their own political and money-grubbing activities at the expense of the truth, while minimizing the real value to our nation of being honest with us.

We Are All Socialists and Capitalists

It is a conventional wisdom that whoever becomes the Presidential candidate for the Democratic Party will be labeled a “socialist” by the Party of Trump, formerly known as the Republican Party. While it is clear that, in recent years, the Democratic Party has been leaning left on the political\economic spectrum, it can hardly be deemed to approach anything defined as being true socialist in nature.

Yes, Bernie Sanders supports public ownership of our utilities. Elizabeth Warren (who has steadfastly denied being a socialist stating, “I am a capitalist to my bones”, supports a Green New Deal that will dictate a major transformation in the fossil fuel industry (meaning: putting them out of business in favor of solar and wind power), and most of the other Democratic contenders support some kind of universal health care for all at government expense.

And, make no mistake about it. The Republican Party will describe Democrats as avowed socialists in the upcoming election season. But, can you imagine the cries that would arise if Democratic spokespersons uniformly appeared at campaign events and on CNN and MSNBC denouncing the GOP and the President as fascists leading our nation towards Nazism and autocracy? However, unlikely this is to happen (if only the Democrats had the temerity to pull off this coordinated attack) calling Trump and his faithful Nazis, fascists or white supremacists – based on actual horrifying events over the past two years – would, in fact, be a label much more accurately describing the Party of Trump than labeling Democrats as socialists.

Labels aside, it is amazing how many voters (1) believe that socialism is some loathsome political disease, even as they (2) fail to recognize just how much our existing government has long been based on some version of socialism. Is it okay to point out to Trumpists and their parents and children that we have, long ago, socialized our postal system, our military, our local police and fire department? Is there anyone out there who detests the idea of socialism yet is willing to waive their right to receive Medicare or Social Security?

Similarly, why, you might ask, are so many of the Democratic Presidential contenders hesitant to be labeled “capitalist” as if there is some loathsome disease associated with the world’s most competitive economy? Is there something inherently to be defensive about if one is in favor of supporting private industry when it shows respect for its well-paid workers and derives legitimate profits from meeting public demands for its products or services?

I have struggled to find out how these questions can be responsibly addressed by the Democratic Party and to understand the connection between what government services are most needed today without labeling their provision as a step forward by our government on the path to becoming a truly socialist nation. And how do we get our nation’s business leaders to recognize the importance of the historical government support for research and development that has benefited not only our businesses but the general public as well? Here’s what I discovered and what I would share with you.

The public has become highly skeptical of government and its role in our lives. Some associate government with seeking “redistribution” of wealth from those who have earned it rightfully while others see the private sector as having complete control over the legislative process by endless campaign contributions i.e., bribes, from lobbying interests that keep the same folk in office year after year. However, history has shown us that the United States became the most prosperous nation in the world because the government\private industry relationship has worked so well for most of our history.

President Trump has not exactly run from actions that are clearly socialist in nature. Farmers (95% of whom are large agricorporations) have been grievously hurt by his tariff wars with China and even our allies. So, what did Trump do to alleviate their pain? He directed the Agriculture Department to give $16 billion in federal aid to farmers, a giveaway that can clearly and honestly be labeled as “socialist” no less than the tens of billions in federal funds given by President George W. Bush to the banking industry to save it from disaster as the Great Recession kicked in. And, let’s be clear: every business is entirely dependent upon public investment in health care, maintaining our roads, our bridges and even our education system.

Democratic plans for universal health care, affordable childcare and a higher minimum wage should, according to Peter Dreiser, professor at Occidental College, be accurately labeled as proposals of social democrats rather than socialist in nature. But that falls far short of pronouncements that the Democratic Party seeks to take “government ownership of the means of production” which matches the dictionary definition of socialism. And, we should remember that Donald Trump won election with a promise to replace the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) with a new law that would cover all Americans, not any different than that proposed by many of the current Democratic presidential candidates are proposing.

The central issue for the Democratic Party is not whether the label of socialist will turn the election in favor of the GOP. Rather, the debate is being configured by the question of which candidate can defeat Donald Trump. A far-left candidate could be more exciting on the campaign trail by mobilizing young, minority and college-educated voters like never before. However, and this is the really big question, will a centrist candidate be the most likely to attract those moderate Republican voters fed up with the excesses of Trump behavior, while holding on to those same young and minority voters who failed to show up in 2016? Are voters, including suburban housewives, minorities and those under thirty years old angry enough at the GOP’s reluctance to take on the gun lobby, promising to take away existing health care for millions and threatening every minority’s belief that, in America, all men are created equal.

From this writer’s perspective, I believe the evidence is mounting in both parties that Donald Trump represents a true existential threat to the democratic institutions most sacred to our nation. If the Democrats select a centrist leader who offers to restore noble character to the Oval Office, renew our historical friendships and treaties with our allies, restore dignity to the immigration process, while providing health care for all that flows from the current Affordable Care Act, the comparison to Trump will be obvious — and welcome — to a clear majority of Americans.

These Truths

This past weekend, I was fulfilling a promise I made earlier in the year to read Jill Lepore’s highly acclaimed history of the United States. These Truths, a 960-page tome that explores our nation’s history filtered through the Declaration of Independence, distills the “truths” of “political equality, natural rights, and the sovereignty of the people” that were initially promised by our Founding Fathers.

Lepore presents a national story that includes “a great deal of anguish” that started off with a promise of equality for all that landed, but fell far short of meeting that lofty ideal when early leaders failed to recognize the millions brought to our nation in chains in order to achieve a political compromise with the southern colonies. It was a decision that would have disastrous consequences; and, not even a Civil War could redress.

The story narrates how our national leaders forced millions of native American Indians from their historic reservations, denied the vote to millions of Japanese who were later interned in camps after the start of World War II, and how Black Americans and women have struggled to secure the benefits promised by those “truths” when our nation was formed.

While I was finishing Jill Lepore’s book, President Trump blurted out that a group of four minority congresswomen feuding with Speaker Nancy Pelosi should “go back” to the countries they came from and stop “loudly and viciously telling the people of the United States” how to run the government. In what could not be misconstrued as anything other than a racist trope, was the incredible fact — ignored by or unknown to Trump — that only one of the lawmakers was born outside the country and she was a naturalized citizen who had been duly elected to the U.S. Congress!

Is it acceptable for white Americans — of either party — to remain silent and, therefore complicit, in the face of a President who proudly spouts white nationalist dogma that is antithetical to the tenets of our democracy?

As stated in the New York Times after Trump’s attack on the four Congresswomen, “Even though Mr. Trump has repeatedly refused to back down from stoking racial divisions, his willingness to deploy a lowest-rung slur — one commonly and crudely used to single out the perceived foreignness of nonwhite, non-Christian people — was largely regarded as beyond the pale.”

These are times that are framed by repeated racist and xenophobic statements from a President without any challenge from the leaders of the Republican Party. Is it acceptable for white Americans — of either party — to remain silent, and therefore complicit, in the face of a President who proudly spouts white nationalist dogma that is antithetical to the tenets of our democracy?

Those who, in our recent past, share the President’s white-centric voice, include the Newt Gingrich’s, the David Dukes, and the George Wallace’s, who seek to dehumanize black Americans, native Americans, Muslims, Jews and every other ethnic and religious and immigrant groups. They are driven by the recognized fear that, by 2040, this nation will have a majority of its citizens being non-white.

For a list of Trump’s racist statements — first compiled by the NYTimes in 2018 and updated this week — click here.

The latest diatribe by Trump shows that he believes that the Republican Party, as a whole, is now behind him. They are only acting in enlightened self-interest fearing presidential tweets that could trigger a primary in their own districts. But they are ignoring the mass of voters who left the GOP in 2016 and whose ranks may grow ever larger for his unapologetic racist comments and attacks on our democratic institutions that are seen as dangerous by friends around the world.

Why is it so hard for those who had hewn closely to the tenets of the GOP for the past half century to speak out in protest and denounce him? Is it that GOP Senators and members of Congress fear a core group of voters who are white nationalists, xenophobes who deny they have immigrant ancestors, racists who root for a return to a pre-Civil War south, and, surprisingly, Evangelicals whose religious scruples used to rise up against a presidential candidate who had merely been divorced? It certainly appears so.

This is no longer a fight to be fought solely by the minorities attacked by the President. Trump now stands alone with former President Andrew Johnson as the most racist of Presidents in the history of our nation. What Trump’s tweets represent is the lowest race baiting that has no place in these times. Had he any knowledge of our Constitution and our history he might have been aware that, upon leaving office, President George Washington raised a wine glass and offered thirteen toasts including this one: “May America be an Asylum to the persecuted of the Earth!”

To be true to our nation’s history, we have heard these horrific anti-American statements in generations past. As Jill Lepore notes in These Truths, in the lead up to the Civil War, Confederate leaders spoke frequently that their Southern form of government rested “upon the great truth that the Negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery...is his natural and moral condition.” In short, the Confederacy was founded on white supremacy, the very same form of white supremacy that spouts from the mind and mouth of our current, all too white, President. To be fair, Northern sympathizers, mostly those manufacturers who profited from the cotton picked by Southern slaves, held much the same views.

Stoking hatred in this country for purely political purposes is not new to our nation. But confronting the truths that challenge these unsupported diatribes is the only way to undercut the floor upon which such racists stand. Trump proudly promotes himself as the President of Racism.

In the final analysis we must not forget that tens of millions of our fellow citizens chose to vote for a man sued by the US Justice Department for discriminating against blacks by refusing to rent apartments in Brooklyn, New York; condoned white nationalists in Charlottesville after one of their kind had crashed his car into a crowd killing a young woman; and whose father was, in 1927, parading as an acknowledged member of the KuKluxKlan in Jamaica, Queens when arrested for disorderly conduct. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/28/in-1927-donald-trumps-father-was-arrested-after-a-klan-riot-in-queens/?utm_term=.cdf04c6b8abc).

We will need to see how effective our democratic institutions respond to these attacks from Trump and his acolytes. And, it must be acknowledged that these are truly difficult times. We will see if our citizens sense the dangers of permitting this behavior without condemning Trump and the GOP when they vote in 2020. Will our electorate choose four more years of Trump's attempts to impose an autocracy? Will the intended votes of blacks and minorities be challenged by gerrymandering and voter suppression or will the electorate insist on overcoming these challenges to oppose government by old, white folk?

But, as the immortal Dante wrote, “the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in time of moral crisis maintain their neutrality.” Staying aloof from these issues is no longer an option. Each of us has an obligation to speak out against hatred and attempts to divide us.

How Our Nation's Most Brilliant Silent Film Star Provides Us with the Words to Bring Down an Autocratic Presidency

There was a time, almost one hundred years ago, when the world was faced with the looming fear that Adolph Hitler and his brown shirted thugs, threatened to upend the world’s hope for democratic governments to shape the future of society.

In a recent article on Medium, The Greatest Movie Speech: What a silent film star chose to say when he had to speak, I was moved by the story of the famed silent film star, Charlie Chaplin, who risked his entire acting and directing career to write, what would ultimately become, one of the first talking movies, The Great Dictator, a movie that has eerie prescience for our times.

Hitler had just underwritten a movie, The Triumph of Will, which touted the wonders to be brought to the common man and woman as a result of the Third Reich. Chaplin decided to make a parody of Nazi politics that would directly speak to the plight of its victims, those who had been hoodwinked by the dogmas espoused by Hitler that would shortly throw the world into World War II.

For Chaplin, the film was very personal. Chaplin saw that fascism tricked the poor into believing that nationalism and racism – and imprisoning or killing all those who were not Aryans as he and his cohorts defined that term – was the answer to their problems. Chaplin sympathized with the poor because his life reflected the tremendous hardships he had faced throughout his life.

Born in London in 1889 to small-time music hall performers his parents became estranged and Chaplin was forced into a paupers’ school before being sent, at the age of seven, to an institution for the destitute. His mother battled with mental illness all her life and his father had little contact with Chaplin and his brother.

By the beginning of the 1930s, Chaplin had mastered the silent art form of pantomime and was uncertain that he could act in the new discovery of “talking” films. But he saw how Hitler had so adversely influenced so much of the poor of Europe and how fascism was tearing away the fabric of so many lives. Realizing that he could no longer stay silent, Chaplin decided that his response to fascism was going to be his first “talkie”. Most importantly, he made the decision that he must make the film so that “Hitler must be laughed at.”

The Great Dictator is about a nameless “Jewish Barber” who was also a World War I hero. It also featured a racist dictator Adenoid Hynkel who takes over the central European nation called Tomania. The Barber character mimics Chaplin’s famous Tramp character but is written so that his appearance is nearly identical to that of the dictator (both are played by Chaplin).

What is most important for all of us today is to see how Chaplin portrays how the world must respond to a dictator who cares not about the poor, the jobless and the homeless whom he purports to represent. In the film, Chaplin enables the poor Barber, a lookalike for the dictator, gets in front of a crowd of hundreds of thousands making an important speech – as the dictator – to be broadcast around the world. He knows he has only one chance to make the speech of a lifetime that can possibly reverse the plight of the souls ravaged by the nefarious acts of the dictator.

Chaplin’s speech forcefully condemns the idea of fascism and nationalism and the tyranny of man that will follow if it is allowed to persist. By attacking such autocratic ideas Chaplin’s Barber proposes a brotherhood of humanity that will lift the cloud of despotism and restore kindness and humility to government and man alike.

Be prepared to be greatly moved by this speech. Click below to watch.

It is long past the time for our nation to rise as one nation determined to show resistance to Trump’s pattern of lies and deceits which seek to destroy the democracy under which our nation has lived for over two hundred years. It is long past the time for all Republicans to remain hiding in the shadows afraid of a Trump tweet  while refraining from speaking against the white nationalist, misogynistic and intolerant rants that have come from the mouths of the Pences, the Pompeos and the Giulianis these past two years. And it is long past the time for our media to treat the daily hate mongering as acceptable “news” to be reported on as truths coming from the mouths of individuals who, in our daily lives, would be treated like the low lives they embody.

We must now be prepared to step up and begin the fight of our lives to take outright resistance against a government that does not speak for those who, for too long, have been forced to the back rows of our society. 

Does Chaplin speak for all of us? Or, are we to remain silent in the face of this generation’s dictator-to-be who urges autocracy and white nationalism as the new rule of law? Only we know how this will play out. Remaining silent while sending along our “hopes and prayers” can no longer be an option in the face of such democratic antagonists. 

Barry LePatner Discusses Our Failing Infrastructure with Bob Herbert of Op-Ed.TV

In case you were pulled in other directions the other evening, I thought I would send to you a link of my interview with Bob Herbert that aired Tuesday night on CUNY-TV. The discussion covered a broad range of infrastructure topics that I know you will find of interest.

Please share with me your comments and, most importantly, I hope each of you enjoys a heartwarming Thanksgiving.

Barry LePatner Interview with Bob Herbert on Infrastructure on CUNY-TV

There are members of the media who one meets at interviews for press, radio and TV. Many of these individuals are consummate professionals who have developed their craft as journalists over the course of their careers. Only a few rise to the level of being at the top of their field based on their wide range of experience and most importantly, who bring a critical level of empathy to the wide range of subjects they cover.

Bob Herbert joined The New York Times as an Op-Ed columnist in 1993. His twice a week column covered politics, urban affairs and social trends. He began his career as a reporter with The Star-Ledger in Newark, N.J., in 1970. He became its night city editor in 1973. Over his career Bob won numerous awards, including the Meyer Berger Award for coverage of New York City and the American Society of Newspaper Editors award for distinguished newspaper writing. He was chairman of the Pulitzer Prize jury for spot news reporting in 1993.

Maybe I have had a special affinity for Bob because we share the distinct honor of both having been born in Brooklyn. Whereas I attended Brooklyn College, he has taught journalism at Brooklyn College as well as the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He currently writes for the Demos blog PolicyShop as well as The American Prospect magazine, which merged with Demos in 2010.

In 2014, Bob published, Losing Our Way: An Intimate Portrait of a Troubled America and I was honored to have been interviewed for the section he wrote on our failing infrastructure which detailed the cost to our nation for our failure to address this important sector of our nation’s history.

So, when Bob asked me recently to appear on his TV program, Bob Herbert’s Op-Ed.TV for CUNY-TV, I was excited to join him in a wide ranging interview on how our nation’s infrastructure has reached the critical juncture it now finds itself and where our nation must go if we are to address the sad state of our roads, bridges, power grid, dams and water supply in a constructive fashion.

You can see the premier of the upcoming interview will air on CUNY TV on the following dates:

Premieres on Monday, November 20 at 8:30pm

Repeats on:

• Wednesday, November 22 - 11:30pm
• Saturday, November 25 - 3:00pm
• Sunday, November 26 - 9:30am
• Monday, November 27 - 9:30am, 3:30pm
• Saturday, December 2 - 3:00pm
• Monday, December 4 - 9:30am, 3:30pm

CUNY TV is cablecast in New York City on Ch. 75 (Spectrum and Cablevision), Ch. 77 (RCN), and Ch. 30 (Verizon). CUNY TV is also digitally broadcast on Channel 25.3, reaching the New York metropolitan area.

After its television premiere, the episode will be posted on the show’s webpage at this link: http://www.cuny.tv/show/opedtv/PR2006362 I believe you will find our discussion to cover a broad perspective on this important subject and let you see why Bob Herbert is such an exceptional interviewer who deserves our attention.

Getting Older While Staying Young

It is inevitable that, as we grow older, we begin to focus our attention on the difference between one’s latter years and those that formed the first decades of our life. This distinction is one that comes to us slowly; there is no cathartic moment, no revelation that seemingly comes from the heavens to alert each of us to the onset of old age.

To think of one’s aging is to begin a new journey in one’s life. It should not be the presaging of the beginning of the end of life. For to think in such a pessimistic fashion is to fail to open ourselves to the many benefits to be derived from the experiences of our earlier years, to reflect on how we can best craft those experiences into a decade or two or four that can be the most fruitful times of our lives.

So it was with great pleasure that I came to read this summer the beautifully wrtiten book by the late Sherwin B. Nuland, The Art of Aging: A Doctor’s Prescription for Well-Being. Nuland wrote this book in 2007, some 17 years after he wrote “How We Die,” which won the National Book Award for nonfiction in 1994 and which was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in nonfiction in 1995, having sold more than 500,000 copies worldwide. In its concluding chapter, Dr. Nuland confessed that he, like many of his readers, desired a death without suffering “surrounded by the people and the things I love,” though he hastened to add that his odds were slim. This brought him to a final question.

“And so, if the classic image of dying with dignity must be modified or even discarded,” he wrote, “what is to be salvaged of our hope for the final memories we leave to those who love us? The dignity we seek in dying must be found in the dignity with which we have lived our lives.”

In “The Art of Aging” Nuland writes elegaically about how we must dedicate ourselves to accepting the onset of aging and not struggle to fight the contrasts between how our body and mind addresses growing older. He notes that "The rivalry within ourselves reflects a rivalry with youth, and it serves neither youth nor age at all well. Successful aging is about successfully adapting which brings the greater opportunity for far greater tensions and for brightening the later decades with a light not yet visible to the young,” it is the acknowledgement that aging is a gift that creates new boundaries in our lives. "Everything within those boundaries becomes more precious than it was before: love, learning, family, work, health and even the lessened time itself.”

His advice to us is to accept the wisdom that comes with age. Even if we did not attain wisdom at an earlier age, we can now begin a new journey that will bring us (1) a sense of mutual caring and connectedness with others; (2) the maintenance, insofar as we can influence it by own actions, of the physical capability of our bodies; and (3) creativity. Each of the three requires work; each of the three brings immense rewards.

I took several pages of notes from the book as they portrayed to me ratification of some of the principles I have adopted for my own onset of the aging process. My focused attention on staying in excellent help by investing in time in a gym doing workouts with weights to my time on a tennis court playing singles against others sometimes decades younger than myself was addressed by Nuland who cites Dr. Michael deBakey, inventor of the heart replacement operation who was performing these delicate operations at age 94. Nuland notes that "Planned, vigorous exercise is a far better anti-aging treatment than all the elixirs, creams, lotions, potions, and cosmetic surgery in the world.”

It was especially soothing to have Nuland point out that If there’s a Holy Grail, it’s our relationships with other people. For each older man and woman, "each needs to maintain a significant role as a distinctive individual within his or her familial and social encirclement – to have purpose, to have value, to have dignity – not only self-perception but in fact as well.” For, as he points out with examples, "Whatever else aging may represent to us, it is first and foremost a state of mind."

Finally, Nuland discusses the need to separate ourselves from our careers. As we age, we just cannot continue to identify who we are by what we did for a living. Our unique personality is what defines us not our chosen path of career. "So long as we are actively engaged in career, we must abide more or less strictly to the boundaries imposed by it. But *once we begin to separate ourselves, we bit by bit become freer to continue maturing in ways distinctive to ourselves. By such means, age becomes a liberator. The better we have used our years, the greater will be the rewards of individuality and accrued wisdom."

As friends and colleagues, I hope that you find the peace of mind to accept that growing older is mostly a state of mind and part of the exciting journey of our lives that is as important as all that came before…. if not more so.

Can Failing Infrastructure Be Bad For Your Health?

THE STREAM ALJAZEERA Tuesday, 5 Sept 2017 | 3:30 PM ET

Barry LePatner appeared on “The Stream” a live interview program put out to over 250 million households across the world by Aljazeera. Joining in on the discussion was a quite interesting group of knowledgeable participants including: Tom Smith, Executive Director, American Society of Civil Engineers, John Nichols, Author, "Horsemen of the Trumpocalypse” and Political correspondent, The Nation Magazine and Tanvi Misra, Staff writer, CityLab. The conversation addressed the state of the U.S. infrastructure and the prospects for remediating this troubled sector of our nation.

Barry LePatner is the Keynote Speaker at the Construction Industry Institute's Annual Conference

In my book on the inefficiencies of the construction industry, "Broken Buildings, Busted Budgets," I noted that the industry is the lowest spender per employee on technology to improve productivity. I said that insofar as advanced technology use in the construction world is concerned, the industry is in the first inning of a long awaited need to bring this $1 trillion a year sector of the U.S. economy into the 21st Century.

If anything, several new developments have triggered sufficient progress within the industry over the past few years to indicate that the construction world has incrementally moved forward into integrating new technology into the design\construction processes so integral in building our future societal needs.

Click here to see the speech, "A Brave New World: Who will survive when new technologies re-shape the A/E/C industry?" from the keynote speech I presented in Boston at the 2015 Construction Industr][2]y Institute last August. As you will see, it is a thought provoking presentation and evidences why new technology will be shaking up the hide bound industry within the next ten years.

I am proud that this speech received such a warm reception from the CII executives who attended. I know you will find it thought provoking and worth your time.

CNBC: U.S. infrastructure a 'Russian roulette' situation

CNBC POWER LUNCH Friday, 31 Mar 2017 | 1:30 PM ET

U.S. infrastructure a 'Russian roulette' situation: Expert Barry Lepatner, Author: Too Big to Fall: America's Failing Infrastructure and the Way Forward," on where the administration should focus infrastructure dollars now.

To watch clip, click here.

Fox News: Is there the political will to fix America's infrastructure?

Reaction to the Orrville Dam crisis from Barry LePatner, author of 'Too Big to Fall,' and Mayor John Dickert, co-founder of the Alliance for Regional Development. See the clip here

Barry LePatner is interviewed on CNBC to discuss our nation's infrastructure in light of the failed dam in Orreville, CA.

Barry LePatner was interviewed on CNBC by the four hosts of the daily business TV program, “Power Lunch" to discuss the state of our nation’s infrastructure and the news surrounding the failed dam in Orreville, California.

The hosts were very savvy on the subject and most interested when he urged the need for an “infrastructure Czar” to break thru the morass of the logjam created by the US Congress for the past several decades.

Mr. LePatner believes there remains substantial congressional logjams that will mitigate against the full onslaught of pushing through a comprehensive infrastructure program over the next few years. While we should remain hopeful, as this was a strong issue for President Trump, the hurdles his administration will face in trying to effect such a program will be substantial.

Reclaiming the Architect's Authority

January 24, 2011

Alexander Tuttle, a Partner with LePatner & Associates, recently wrote an article for distribution among friends and colleagues. In the article, entitled "Reclaiming the Architect's Authority," Mr. Tuttle discusses how architects' authority over construction projects have eroded in the last 40 years and advocates recapturing their role as "Master Builder". Currently, construction managers run unchecked on projects. Invariable delays occur, which lead to construction cost overruns.

Mr. Tuttle considers how implementing a fixed price construction process through up-front project planning, complete and coordinated construction documents and more extensive architectural project oversight will carve a new landscape in the industry -- reclaiming architects' authority. Consider, for example, if architects could stand behind complete and coordinate design documents? If architects could restore owner control over the project budgets? And if, when the design documents were completed, the owner secured an independent cost estimate that would define the parameters of the costs to be anticipated by the contractor bidders? This is the essence of the LePatner C3™ Methodolgy.

Mr. Tuttle concludes that the construction industry is ripe for change. And change will only emerge through construction cost certainty and architects reclaiming their role as efficient and effective intermediaries. We hope you find this article interesting.

Barry LePatner weighs in on the state of New York City's bridges in the New York Times video series "Living City."

In the New York Times’ new six-part “Living City” series, Barry LePatner weighs in on the state of New York City’s bridges and offers commentary on the renovation of the Brooklyn Bridge and the handling of infrastructure in New York City. “Living City: A Tale of Two Bridges” presents a brief history of New York City’s bridges and compares the decision to replace the Tappan Zee Bridge with the decision to repair the iconic Brooklyn Bridge. Click here to take you to the video.